Stats On Winning Favourites

The favourite in a horse race is the shortest priced runner in the odds market. Visit here to learn more about horse racing odds. The theory behind a horse racing favourite is it has the most likelychance of winning the race however as all followers of the sport will know this is far from always being the case.

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Contents

Stats On Winning Favorites 2019

What makes a favourite

Stats on winning favorites 2019
  1. You are here: Home - Help & Information - Horse Racing Favourites Favourites Information & Help. The favourite in a horse race is the shortest priced runner in the odds market. Visit here to learn more about horse racing odds.The theory behind a horse racing favourite is it has the most likely chance of winning the race however as all followers of the sport will know this is far from always.
  2. Get the latest NFL football news, scores, stats, standings, fantasy games, and more from ESPN.

There are so many factors that can contribute to a horse being favourite in any given race. These range from obviousthings such as previous form of the horses competing to more reactional favouritism created by word of mouth such as favourable word coming fromthe trainer of the horse. The shorter the price of the favourite the more likely it is its position in the market is derived from form actuallyshown on the racecourse. Its worth remembering something has to be top of the market so in races where there is little between the major playershorses may well switch places in favouritism right up till the off.

Favourite types

There are three types of favourite description you may see, these vary only in terms of the number of runners withfavouritism status. These are as following -

  • Clear favourites. Indicated by an F (for example 2/1F) signifying this horse was clear at the head of the market.
  • Joint favourites. The display will show JF (for example 3/1JF) meaning this horse and one other were joint top in the market.
  • Co favourites. Signified by CF (for example 4/1CF) this shows the horse was one of at least three who were all sharing favouritism.

False favourites

Here is where hindsight is often used, because of course after the race its easy to say 'no way it should have been favourite'. The aim of punters is to try and distinguish the factors commonly associated with horses who are incorrectlyat the head of the market and therefore perhaps underpriced and worthy of taking on. Some of these factors can include the following -

  • The form of the favourites previous win has worked out badly.
  • Competing horses have previously beaten or came very close to the favourite in similar circumstances.
  • Collateral form does not justify favouritism
  • The horse has ran too many times or risen too high in the weights and has peaked
  • Despite boasting excellent form the favourite has not shown enough under todays conditions
  • Hype - when its all down to talk and heresay, can you trust where its coming from?

Additional favourites comments

Although a commonly sourced set of statistics, it is worth recognising the actual odds of the favourites for certain types of races are generally shorter than others. Therefore although a commonly spoken statistic of favourites going well in certain circumstances may to an extent be true, it does not actually mean anything worthwhile from a betting perspective. Take for example two jockeys, one of whom has a 50% strike rate on favourites while the other has only a 25% strike rate - this is only meaningful if they have competed on horses in a comparable price range.

The key to finding favourites who are consistently worth either backing or taking on is to identify a like-for-like scenariowhere you can clearly spot, justify and explain the reasoning behind your support or laying of this particular favourite type with solid statistical evidence over a reasonable period of time. There are several good systems exploiting these situations but they are often short-lived due to the popularity of favourites and the fact bookmakers are always second-guessing punters.

Horse Racing Favourite Statistics

There is a section focusing on favourites in the dedicated directory of horse racing statistics,here you will find numerous facts and figures in relation to the favourite in various tests.

Favourites in the horse racing systems builder.

With the Favourites setting, you can specify favouritism status of the horse. Favourites are horses that started as clear favourite, Joint Favourites are horses that started as a favourite with same price as one other horse. Co-Favourites are horses that started with same price as two or more horses.

  • Selecting Favourites & Co-Favourites limits query to horses that started as co-fav or fav. Joint favs would not be included.
  • Selecting Co-Favourites only will include only Co-Favourites in your query. Clear favourites and joint favourites would be excluded.
  • Selecting Favourites in the Favourites (LR) setting limits query to horses that started as favourite on their last run.

Starting Price Of Favourite

Here you can breakdown/include only races that had a favourite within your specified price range.

  • Setting between 2/1 & 4/1 limits your query to only races where the shortest priced horse in the race (fav or joint fav etc) was equal to or greater than 2/1 and less than or equal to 4/1
  • Setting between 10/11 and 10/11 limits your query to only races which had a 10/11 priced favourite

On average favorites win about 35% of horse races. But, that win percentage can fluctuate based on the distance, surface, class, etc. For example, favorites are more likely to win dirt races than turf races. Another thing that will obviously make a big difference in the win % of favorites is the number of horses in the race. Favorites will win more often in small fields than in races with a lot of other entrants.

How Many Odds On Favourites Win

We recently looked at a large sample of data in Angler for races that had 8 horses starting. These races contained all tracks, distances, surfaces, classes, etc. The only consistent thing was that they had 8 starters.

We wanted to look at each horse in those races based on their rank in terms of their final odds. The horse with the lowest odds is the favorite, and the horse with the highest odds was the 8th choice.

The table above shows you how often a horse runs better, worse or as expected.

If a horse was the favorite, they couldn't run better than expected (as they were expected to win) and the 8th choice couldn't run worse than expected (it was expected to finish last).

Stats On Winning Favorites College Football

The favorites in these 8 horse races won 35.4% of the time and ran worse than that 64.6% of the time. Worse could be anything from 2nd through 8th. The 2nd betting choice ran as expected (2nd) 20.7% of the time and ran better than expected 21.6% of the time and ran worse than expected (3rd through 8th) 57.7% of the time.

As you look through the table you will notice some interesting things:

Stats On Winning Favorites Florida Lottery

College football playoff odds. The betting public is better at deciding which horse will win than which horse will finish last.

In races with 8 horses the winner will be among the top 4 betting choices 82% of the time.

Horses that are the 5th choice will run better than expected 45.9% of the time, which puts them on a lot of superfecta tickets.

While this information is not all that surprising, it should help you think in general terms about percentages and odds. If you want to make money betting on horses you need to be betting against the favorite in the races that it is going to lose, and as you can see that happens more often that not (64.6% of the time). If you are betting on a horse that is the 5th choice or higher you are only going to win about 18% of the time. A horse could be the 5th choice and have odds of 7:1 or it could be the 5th choice and have odds of 12:1 or more. So, when you consider the general percentage chance that you have of beating the public opinion make sure you are going to be paid accordingly if you are right.

Finding the value plays is the key, and using Betmix will get you there. Betmix angler will help you find value plays and give you answers to almost any statistical question you have about horse racing data.